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MIT economists' panel sees light at end of economic tunnel

This is not only a good panel discussion, but also one that has some good news. The time might be close when people can resume investing. Perhaps it's also time for Europe to realize that our economic situation is way better than the US for a number of reasons starting with the fact that we are nowhere near the level of debt that prevails in the US be it government or private debt. It's just so sad we don't have anyone to carry the torch of recovery on the political front. As someone told me recently, a recession can be a self-fulfilling prophecy whereas business & economic progress does not happen by mere wishful thinking.

Law enforcement for a change

Great piece by Stanley Bing. If we step back it's quite sad and probably yet another indication of the need for some radical changes in the financial system with a view to restoring the logical order of things, which is that finance should serve the economy, not lead it.

How would you salvage the banking system?

Over the past few weeks I've been doing some research work around the financial system because I have an idea that I might pursue as an entrepreneurial venture aimed at making a difference in the following areas:

• funding for privately owned European SMB companies
• the way investors (LPs) structure their deals with fund managers
• how relationships are (not) created between LPs and companies in which a fund invests
• the degree of transparency allowed into the system for various stakeholders
• the way investment performance is measured to account for environmental, social and human cost of decisions taken by companies and by the financiers to pursue growth (and wealth)
• how companies share the benefits of their success with all stakeholders not just between shareholders
• ...

I still need to do some work, but the thing is taking a nice shape, especially after a sudden satori I had over the weekend... It now seems so obvious I am in bewildered wonder at the idea that something so evident that was right before my eyes could have escaped my attention even as I was working on stumbling blocks that it helps remove! Anyway, more in a future post. For now, I'd be grateful if you could help me by voting on a question I have: how would you go about salvaging the financial system? To answer on LinkedIn, please click here.

Excellent discussion on the crisis at Digital Life Design

Late January at Digital Life Design in Munich, there was an interesting panel with Nasim Taleb (always insightful and full of common sense | his site) and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman (always fascinating pioneer of psychology applied to finance and the economy | his Nobel profile ). Taleb has a realistic approach by saying that what he basically want is not to improve forecasts but rather to review the way the world is working in order to make it resistant to forecastign errors. Like Roubini he advocates the nationalization of banks. I suspect he means the "utility" part, not the "casino" part of the banking system (for a view of utility vs casino listen to the podcast at the end of this post). Kahneman shows how human psychology is a key driving force for understanding organizations, companies, the economy and markets because, as he very correctly points out, these entities do not exist in any other way than through human behavior.

Video and comments below.

To be consistent, we need (radical) change in execs' compensation

Senior executives are supposed to be dealing with strategic matters most of the time or at least supposed to be exerting major influence on a company's long term. Yet their compensations are structured to reward short term thinking and short term action. In particular bonuses and stock option schemes tend to be attributed and vest much earlier than the time horizon when the results of the execs' work become apparent. How can there be more consistency without additional legislation, regulations and authorities of control? We know none of the really works.

Skype growing impressively but what's the ROI?

Skype seems to be showing signs of sustainable growth not only in terms of new accounts but also in terms of turnover and profitability. What's the impact of VoIP adoption overall and how good an investment has Skype been for eBay? Follow the link below the clipping for more on these questions.

clipped from business2press.com

Internet telephone company Skype, an eBay company, has released impressive user numbers. The company now has 405 million users worldwide, and it is adding 380,000 new accounts daily. Skype continues to offer free calling between Skype users and low cost rates to all other physical phones. The company also posted a $45 million Q4 2008 profit, the 8th consecutive quarterly profit for the company. Skype also says 2.6 billion SkypeOut minutes were used, and SkypeOut minutes are estimated to be growing 61% quarterly, which will bring significantly more revenue to the company if the trend continues. Skype recently launched Skype 4.0, the biggest and most comprehensive upgrade to its service.

Is the Treasury's plan destined to fail?

Here's an interesting take on the Geithner plan for shoring up the banks' financial situation. The article makes a compelling argument as to why the plan is not really a great deal for would-be investors and definitely a loosing proposition for taxpayers. So is the Treasury's plan destined to fail? Are the core causes of this mess addressed?

President Obama blasting bankers' bonuses

How could one disagree with the opinion expressed by President Obama regarding the bonuses some Wall Street bankers have decided to pay themselves? We’re really witnessing recklessness of untold and unprecedented proportions. Those bankers’ behaviro testifies to the fact that there is a complete disconnect between modern finance and the field reality of what we call the "real" economy. But of course when things are getting tough for their girlfriends, wives and mistresses who need to change lifestyle (see the DABA Girls blog to get a feel for the utter disconnect of this crowd from real life), these guys feel the pressure to do something, no? Sadly enough a limited number of people damage the reputation of an entire profession. Most of my contacts in the world of finance are just very fine persons, working hard and decently to fulfill their mission and serve real companies with real customers and real services and real employees and real profits and real problems. They’re part of economic life, whereas the people President Obama is targeting are causing economic death and loss of confidence. If we are serious about solving the current crisis, both they and the pervert system they’ve created must be taken out of the system.

Read on for an analysis take and a video embedded.

Roubini confirms deep crisis: how will you shield your business?

Nouriel Roubini’s (RGE – Wikipedia –  Page at NYU Stern) interview on Bloomberg is something you ought to listen carefully (podcast at the end of this post) if you’re a business founder, a manager or an asset owner. It’s not exactly the sort of content that will boost your morale, but I don’t believe the Coué method is the right way to go because it’s much more than a mere crisis of confidence. On the other hand neither denial, nor pessimism are going to take us anywhere.

Rather a pragmatic take on the situation is an essential first step if you’re serious about adapting and being in a position to fully benefit from an eventually recovering economy. This is only one of the reasons why it’s worth getting down to some of the implications of this analysis for business. Today helping business people deal with anxiety and make sense of this chaos is part of my work in different industries, from commodities to tech-innovative sectors, in different areas of Europe. So what does a pragmatic analysis of the situation mean for business? Read on and listen to the podcast.

So what was Madoff investing in?

The name Madoff is now indelibly associated to the largest financial scam of history. Nevertheless, it's interesting to see what types of investments had Madoff's favors and that's what a columnist of the FT did. Fairly interesting piece although I'm not certain you should immediately try to replicate Madoff's approach because this stuff smells like insider trading. Yet another indication of the degree of corruption that plagued parts of the financial system that is collapsing before our eyes and inflicting damage on many people who neither benefited, not supported it.

clipped from www.ft.com

It looks like Mr Madoff (or whoever chose the stocks in his fund) liked to get involved in various special arbitrage situations. Some of these still exist and make for interesting stock picks.

Mr Madoff played a lot of special-purpose acquisition company arbitrage: SPACs trading below cash.

Hicks has $540m in cash and a market capitalisation of $480m. Trading below cash makes this a very safe play.

Anheuser-Busch, which has since been acquired. When Mr Madoff bought the stock he had a potential 40 per cent annualised return implicit in it because of the arbitrage going on with Anheuser-Busch being acquired by InBev. The deal closed in November so Mr Madoff made his money.

Mr Madoff also liked “closed end fund arbitrage”: buying closed end funds trading at significant discounts to their net asset value

Finally, Mr Madoff was a big believer in financial media. One of his new positions in the third quarter of 2008 was a little stock called thestreet.com, founded by CNBC’s Jim Cramer.

The making of a credit crisis

Here's an interesting set of slides to provide an overview of how the credit crisis was caused, even though there is a little something that is missing: the role of rating agencies that failed their mission more than ever before...

Creditcrisis 30slides Final

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: capitalism mortgage)